Is Obama Inevitable?

By: Michael M. Shapiro

Approximately a month ago, the pundits were entranced by the inevitability argument promulgated by the Clinton Campaign, believing the spoon-fed line that Hillary Clinton was the heir to the White House “throne” and unbeatable. Something has happened since then, actually a lot: The Clinton juggernaut has revealed itself to be a house of cards. Her prodigious fundraising has been unmasked as a traditional operation that basked in the glow of large donors whose contributions have now largely maxed out, leaving the once behemoth campaign struggling for dollars. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s high-powered (and expensive) political team has shown itself to be adept at shooting the candidate in the foot by promoting her as a candidate of experience when the American electorate is looking for an end to the status quo in Washington. At the same time, her charge that Senator Obama was the weaker of the two general election candidates and that he could not appeal to whites and particularly women has been undercut by recent polls. These polls show the Senator from Illinois with a lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, while Mrs. Clinton is behind, tied with, or one point ahead of the Senator from Arizona depending on the particular poll. Senator Obama also won over Clinton in North Dakota, Utah, Kansas and other states not known for their diversity, and was significantly victorious over Clinton in the Potomac primaries, receiving a majority of the women’s vote over the Senator from New York.

With super-delegates pledged to Clinton now changing course, unions which were remaining neutral now siding with Obama, newspaper endorsements in favor of the Senator from Illinois continuing unabated, and near endless press coverage regarding the possible collapse of the vaunted Clinton machine, the New York Senator has now become the underdog. The Clinton Campaign shakeup this past week did not help matters, instilling fear in donors and other supporters that the campaign is in deep trouble. At the same time, it provided a sense of near panic to a public that wants reassurance from the former First Lady that she is calm and cool under pressure.

All of the above raise the question: Is Senator Obama now Mr. Inevitable? His campaign manager, David Plouffe, apparently thinks so, issuing a statement last week that the Obama Campaign could no longer be stopped by Mrs. Clinton. While it is true that the prospects are looking good for Mr. Obama, one would be remiss to discount the power of the Clintons and the ardor that many Democrats still feel for the First Couple. Polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas show Mrs. Clinton ahead, sometimes comfortably. Since those states have more delegates than most that have already had primaries, a Clinton win in each of them keeps her in the game. A decisive win in each of them would regain her foothold on the nomination and could turn the race around. However, should Mrs. Clinton lose even one of those three states, her only chance of being nominated would be to convince the DNC to seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan, which would raise all kinds of controversy, and to convince super-delegates to swing her way. Even if she could win such a tactical battle, her general election candidacy would be doomed to failure since her actions would so deeply divide the Democratic Party that she would lose a great deal of support and would go into the battle against Senator McCain severely wounded. A win in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Texas will therefore likely crown Mr. Inevitable. However, since the Senator from New York is going for the trifecta, all bets are off!

Michael M. Shapiro, founder of ShapTalk.com, is an attorney who resides in New Providence, New Jersey. He currently serves as the Editor of The Alternative Press, www.thealternativepress.com Contact Mike at mike@shaptalk.com