Will He or Won’t He?

By: Michael M. Shapiro

Although repeatedly denying he will run for President in 2008, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg reportedly has a bevy of campaign strategists, including ballot experts, advising him on a potential Presidential run.  Sources close to the Mayor have said that he will run only if he thinks he can win and that he would not enter the race to be a spoiler or for the purpose of getting the major political parties to address issues of concern to him.  So will he or won't he? 

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee and Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, look for Bloomberg to enter.  Both are divisive figures who practice scorched-earth politics and have little ability to attract either Independents or voters of the opposing party.  A Clinton/Romney race would open the door to a third-party candidate who could appeal to all shades of Democrats, moderate Republicans, and Independents. 

If Clinton is the Democratic nominee and Huckabee is the Republican nominee, again look for Bloomberg to enter.  Huckabee, like Clinton, is a controversial figure, but for different reasons.  Huckabee wears his faith on his sleeve, which is not necessarily a bad thing; but he has no compunction about having his religiosity be the guiding force for governmental decisions.  Just last month, Huckabee advocated amending the Constitution to outlaw both abortion and gay marriage.  A race between Clinton and Huckabee would polarize the electorate and again allow a third-party candidate to surface.

If Clinton is the Democratic nominee and McCain is the Republican nominee, it is more questionable whether Bloomberg would run.  McCain and his ability to draw Independent and Reagan-Democrats may cause Bloomberg to pass on the 2008 election. However, should McCain be forced to tack far right to appeal to the conservative base, Bloomberg may decide to enter anyway.

If Obama is the Democratic nominee, Bloomberg will likely not enter the race.  Despite the Clinton campaign's efforts, Obama does have the ability to appeal to both Republicans and Independents, making a Bloomberg entrance more dicey.  Compound that with the fact that if Bloomberg entered such a race, he could wind up handing the election to the Republican nominee, thereby causing the first African-American Democratic nominee to lose. This would likely be too great a price for a Bloomberg run.

Should Bloomberg enter the race, his electability is another matter.  Unlike Teddy Roosevelt, who ran as the candidate of the Bull Moose Party (but lost), Bloomberg is not a former President nor does he have the nationwide recognition that TR had.  Bloomberg would have a steep uphill battle to win the Presidency, although it would not be out of the question.  With a billion dollars potentially on the line, it would be a mistake to count him out.

My guess is that Bloomberg will run.  His candidacy will roil the Presidential race and voter turnout will be the highest it has been in a long time.  The winner is anyone's guess, but hopefully the real winner of a three-way general election contest will be the American people, who will be provided with more choice than they have had in many years.

Michael M. Shapiro, founder of ShapTalk.com, is an attorney who resides in New Providence, New Jersey. He currently serves as the Editor of The Alternative Press, www.thealternativepress.com Contact Mike at mike@shaptalk.com